So? 25% doesn't mean it can't happen. I wouldn't cross the road if there was a 25% of being hit by a car.
The real way to measure predictive accuracy is to find _all_ the times they gave something a 25% chance of happening. If the predictions are accurate then roughly 25% of those things should have happened.
The real way to measure predictive accuracy is to find _all_ the times they gave something a 25% chance of happening. If the predictions are accurate then roughly 25% of those things should have happened.