As usual, Gladwell is cherrypicking data to display something unrelated to reality. Let's look at the first QB picked since 1999.
2000: Chad Pennington, this year starting qb for the Jets, doing well.
2001: Michael Vick, who was one of the top few QBs in the league. Of course talent scouts can't predict animal cruelty.
2002: David Carr: Playing backup to Eli Manning. Started for 6 years until an injury sidelined him. Not a McNabb, but far from a Tim Couch
2003: Carson Palmer: 2 pro bowls with the Bungles.
2004: Eli Manning: Superbowl MVP
(here's where players are still too new to tell much about)
2005: Alex Smith: that one hasn't worked out yet and may never.
2006: Vince Young: Promising backup on the Titans.
2007: JaMarcus Russell: Starting for the Raiders
2008: Starting for the Falcons.
Either way, in any non-Gladwellian universe, I'd say college QB scouts are doing pretty well.
2000: Chad Pennington, this year starting qb for the Jets, doing well.
2001: Michael Vick, who was one of the top few QBs in the league. Of course talent scouts can't predict animal cruelty.
2002: David Carr: Playing backup to Eli Manning. Started for 6 years until an injury sidelined him. Not a McNabb, but far from a Tim Couch
2003: Carson Palmer: 2 pro bowls with the Bungles.
2004: Eli Manning: Superbowl MVP
(here's where players are still too new to tell much about)
2005: Alex Smith: that one hasn't worked out yet and may never.
2006: Vince Young: Promising backup on the Titans.
2007: JaMarcus Russell: Starting for the Raiders
2008: Starting for the Falcons.
Either way, in any non-Gladwellian universe, I'd say college QB scouts are doing pretty well.