I think your second point helps make sense of my problem with the not 1, but 2 threshold articulated.
> if it happens twice in a row, yeah, that’s weird, I would update some stuff
Why? Why is one event not an “update”, but 2 is? Shouldn’t each data point change your assumption proportional to the assumed chance and period of observation?
That seems more true to the author’s belief framework, but it wouldn’t make as as spicy a title.
> if it happens twice in a row, yeah, that’s weird, I would update some stuff
Why? Why is one event not an “update”, but 2 is? Shouldn’t each data point change your assumption proportional to the assumed chance and period of observation?
That seems more true to the author’s belief framework, but it wouldn’t make as as spicy a title.