> I did fake Bayesian math with some plausible numbers
This is actually a great example of the deepest and most intractable issue with the Bayesian viewpoint: different observers with different priors can come to radically different conclusions, even if both did the math correctly. One can easily compose priors under which the jump in P(Lab-Leak) is much greater than the 20 - 27.5% jump Scott mentioned. And there's no principled way to argue that one prior is better than another, especially in cases like this, where there's no good reference class.
(update: I think this is a great essay and I strongly agree with the overall point)
This is actually a great example of the deepest and most intractable issue with the Bayesian viewpoint: different observers with different priors can come to radically different conclusions, even if both did the math correctly. One can easily compose priors under which the jump in P(Lab-Leak) is much greater than the 20 - 27.5% jump Scott mentioned. And there's no principled way to argue that one prior is better than another, especially in cases like this, where there's no good reference class.
(update: I think this is a great essay and I strongly agree with the overall point)