I predict May will be a very cruel month for Groupon. Around mid-month, three big things happen:
• they have to report their next-quarter results, the first reporting after they belatedly recharacterized a profit as a loss. They'll be watched like a hawk, and even if they report good results many will have doubts.
• the 6-month lockup on many insiders selling their shares expires
• Facebook goes public. Contrasted against Facebook and other newly-public real-profits, non-deceptive-accounting tech companies, GRPN will stick out as the shifty exception. It won't have the halo of being mentally grouped with other more solid companies much longer.
• they have to report their next-quarter results, the first reporting after they belatedly recharacterized a profit as a loss. They'll be watched like a hawk, and even if they report good results many will have doubts.
• the 6-month lockup on many insiders selling their shares expires
• Facebook goes public. Contrasted against Facebook and other newly-public real-profits, non-deceptive-accounting tech companies, GRPN will stick out as the shifty exception. It won't have the halo of being mentally grouped with other more solid companies much longer.