Why does it matter if it’s absolute result vs percentile result?
In the former, you’re asked to predict your score.
In the latter, you’re asked to predict your place among others.
Yes, the latter more difficult to do accurately, but if people were really able to evaluate themselves, they would be able to understand they’re, on average, below or above the median. The results of DK show that most people think they _are_ the median (we all think people are like us). This means, as a result, less capable people overestimate their abilities and more capable people underestimate their abilities. It tracks.
In the former, you’re asked to predict your score.
In the latter, you’re asked to predict your place among others.
Yes, the latter more difficult to do accurately, but if people were really able to evaluate themselves, they would be able to understand they’re, on average, below or above the median. The results of DK show that most people think they _are_ the median (we all think people are like us). This means, as a result, less capable people overestimate their abilities and more capable people underestimate their abilities. It tracks.