Basically, this autocorrelation take shows that if performance and evaluation of performance were random and independent, you would get a graph like the D-K one, and therefore it states that the effect is just autocorrelation. But in reality, it would be very surprising if performance and evaluation of performance were independent. We expect people to be able to accurately rate their own ability. And D-K did indeed show a correlation between the two, just not as strong of one as we would expect. Rather, they showed a consistent bias. That's the interesting result. They then posit reasons for this. One could certainly debate those reasons. But to say the whole effect is just a statistical artifact because random, independent variables would act in a similar way ignores the fact that these variables aren't expected to be independent.
Basically, this autocorrelation take shows that if performance and evaluation of performance were random and independent, you would get a graph like the D-K one, and therefore it states that the effect is just autocorrelation. But in reality, it would be very surprising if performance and evaluation of performance were independent. We expect people to be able to accurately rate their own ability. And D-K did indeed show a correlation between the two, just not as strong of one as we would expect. Rather, they showed a consistent bias. That's the interesting result. They then posit reasons for this. One could certainly debate those reasons. But to say the whole effect is just a statistical artifact because random, independent variables would act in a similar way ignores the fact that these variables aren't expected to be independent.