I am surprised by how dismissive the whole post sounds. For example:
> OpenAI could in fact have a breakthrough that fundamentally changes the world
Well, it appears to me that OpenAI already has such a breakthrough- it had it roughly 4 years ago with GPT2, and it's still scaling it.
Considering that it's not yet a year since the introduction of the first ChatGPT, and given the pace at which it's evolving, I would say that the current product is already showing great promise to fundamentally change the world. I would not be surprised if just incremental changes were enough to fulfill that prediction. The impact at this point seems more limited by the ability of society to absorb and process the technology rather than intrinsic limits of the technology itself.
> OpenAI could in fact have a breakthrough that fundamentally changes the world
Well, it appears to me that OpenAI already has such a breakthrough- it had it roughly 4 years ago with GPT2, and it's still scaling it.
Considering that it's not yet a year since the introduction of the first ChatGPT, and given the pace at which it's evolving, I would say that the current product is already showing great promise to fundamentally change the world. I would not be surprised if just incremental changes were enough to fulfill that prediction. The impact at this point seems more limited by the ability of society to absorb and process the technology rather than intrinsic limits of the technology itself.