> “If AI makes developers twice as productive (maybe a few years down the road with GPT-6), will this additional supply of developer capacity get absorbed by existing and new demand? Or will there be half as many developers? Or will the same number of developers get paid far less than today?”
Something to remember is that every new innovation in software development only raises the expectations of the people paying the software developers.
If developers are 3x as productive, then the goals and features will be 3x big.
The reason for this is that companies are in competition, if they lag behind, then others will eat up the market.
The company that fires 50% of their staff because of “AI Assistance” is not going to be able to compete with the company that doesn’t fire their staff and still uses “AI Assistance”…
Something to remember is that every new innovation in software development only raises the expectations of the people paying the software developers.
If developers are 3x as productive, then the goals and features will be 3x big.
The reason for this is that companies are in competition, if they lag behind, then others will eat up the market.
The company that fires 50% of their staff because of “AI Assistance” is not going to be able to compete with the company that doesn’t fire their staff and still uses “AI Assistance”…