Statistics and modeling are complicated, granted. But when your model diverges from reality 5 years in a row, perhaps you should just extrapolate the current line next time around.
(In the case of the Itanic, that would have been the line at 0. Still a better forecast than what they did!)
Statistics and modeling are complicated, granted. But when your model diverges from reality 5 years in a row, perhaps you should just extrapolate the current line next time around.
(In the case of the Itanic, that would have been the line at 0. Still a better forecast than what they did!)