Comment by Pyramus

You are not wrong, but as always, reality is more nuanced than assigning utilities to a game. Russia would benefit in two ways:

a) Sending a message about capabilities and willingness to attack infrastructure (in NATO countries!),

b) Sowing distrust and misinformation (see e.g. Hersh article and US-Germany relations).

If you believe (big if!) Hersh's single source was a Russian asset, then b) worked wonderfully.

Overall I'm with you, current evidence doesn't point towards Russia.