>I tell you I have two children, and (at least) one of them is a boy born on April 1. What probability should you assign to the event that I have two boys? If you think that is going to be too cumbersome, simply tell me whether the probability is close to 1/2 or to 1/3, or to some other simple fraction, and provide an estimate as to how close.
I am going to not heed the author's suggestion of setting up the problem correctly and use intuition:
For the week problem it was 14+13 = (7 * 4 -1) in the bottom and 13 (7*2-1) on the top.
So for a normal year (365 days), it would be (365*2 - 1)/(365*4 - 1). Close to 1/2.
I am going to not heed the author's suggestion of setting up the problem correctly and use intuition:
For the week problem it was 14+13 = (7 * 4 -1) in the bottom and 13 (7*2-1) on the top.
So for a normal year (365 days), it would be (365*2 - 1)/(365*4 - 1). Close to 1/2.