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Comment by mariuskempe

That's an interesting point. In fact, the expectation of the random walk is always the same as its starting value, because, although most of the walks go to 0 like you observed, there are very occasionally walks that drift upward to astronomical values.

As for the usefulness of this kind of walk: the process we're modelling is an evolutionary one, where the rate of change is fixed (in this case within the species) and we'd like to detect 'random' (non-selected) evolutionary paths by comparing simulations to historical data.

parent mariuskempe 14 years ago

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