What do these prediction markets produce? Some people are saying "yes" and others are saying "no", and the answer is either "yes" or "no", but why bother spending money on predicting when society can spend money on replicating it? Wouldn't an actual replication attempt be more useful?
> The latter is a perfectly reasonable thing to do - it's not easy for an average person to "pay off some lab", but if they provide liquidity to the prediction market they are giving an explicit subsidy for anyone that can answer the question.
Is any of this liquidity going to actual (replication) research, because if it is not, again: what are these markets tangibly producing? Moving a bunch of numbers around a ledger does not seem very useful.
> The latter is a perfectly reasonable thing to do - it's not easy for an average person to "pay off some lab", but if they provide liquidity to the prediction market they are giving an explicit subsidy for anyone that can answer the question.
Is any of this liquidity going to actual (replication) research, because if it is not, again: what are these markets tangibly producing? Moving a bunch of numbers around a ledger does not seem very useful.