> physical models are the most reliable basis for prediction
Simpler models can yield better predictions than complex ones, even when the complex model is more "realistic". The many tunable parameters and complex feedback loops can increase uncertainty compared to a simple model.
Simpler models can yield better predictions than complex ones, even when the complex model is more "realistic". The many tunable parameters and complex feedback loops can increase uncertainty compared to a simple model.
See for example "To explain or to predict?" by Shmueli (2010, https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS330)