Hofstadter said, "Well, maybe as important as the wheel."
If AI significantly surpasses humanity in cognitive ability, then I think it will have a much bigger impact than the wheel. (I loved GEB and DH's other writings.)
LLMs have really improved a lot of the last two years and they have shown many unexpected capabilities. I am guessing that they will get some more good input (text mostly), a lot more compute, and algorithmic improvements, so that may very well be enough to become better than 99% of humans at tasks that involve only text. Tasks that require video or image processing may be a little bit more challenging. Having very smart AI's controlling robots may just be five years away. (I recently lost a bet about autonomous driving. Five years ago, I thought that autonomous cars would be better than human drivers by now.)
I'm frightened by what AI will become over the next 10 years.
If AI significantly surpasses humanity in cognitive ability, then I think it will have a much bigger impact than the wheel. (I loved GEB and DH's other writings.)
LLMs have really improved a lot of the last two years and they have shown many unexpected capabilities. I am guessing that they will get some more good input (text mostly), a lot more compute, and algorithmic improvements, so that may very well be enough to become better than 99% of humans at tasks that involve only text. Tasks that require video or image processing may be a little bit more challenging. Having very smart AI's controlling robots may just be five years away. (I recently lost a bet about autonomous driving. Five years ago, I thought that autonomous cars would be better than human drivers by now.)
I'm frightened by what AI will become over the next 10 years.