The funny thing about the 10x claims (I've even seen folks say 100x) is that results like these would be readily apparent. Even a broad 1.5x productivity increase would be world changing. And yet, we clearly are not seeing this currently.
I'm not saying it will never happen, just that it will be very obvious if it does. 5-10% sounds about right to me.
I'm not saying it will never happen, just that it will be very obvious if it does. 5-10% sounds about right to me.