>>If this sounds far-fetched, consider that many smart and smart-sounding people have predicted Bitcoin's demise, and so far all have been utterly wrong
Bernie Madoff pulled off one of the largest (literal Ponzi) scams and evidently stated that he started in the 1990s for a run of just over 15 years until being arrested in 2008, although some investigators thought that his fraudulent activities started as far back as the 1970s (!!).[1]
The Lindy effect[2] works until it doesn't. Taleb popularized the theory in pop-culture with his books, but the problem is that it's seemingly impossible to know when/if something will collapse/fail to the point that this "effect" doesn't seem all that useful as a predictive indicator.
Bernie Madoff pulled off one of the largest (literal Ponzi) scams and evidently stated that he started in the 1990s for a run of just over 15 years until being arrested in 2008, although some investigators thought that his fraudulent activities started as far back as the 1970s (!!).[1]
The Lindy effect[2] works until it doesn't. Taleb popularized the theory in pop-culture with his books, but the problem is that it's seemingly impossible to know when/if something will collapse/fail to the point that this "effect" doesn't seem all that useful as a predictive indicator.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindy_effect