What is so impressive about ChatGPT that it poses an existential threat? Many experts are highly critical (e.g. LeCun) and/or believe LLMs are nothing more than stochastic parrots.
Anyone who was working with transformers could have seen ChatGPT on the horizon, it wasn’t surprising at all that scaling an autoregressive model can result in something seemingly intelligent.
Where is 1 in 10 coming from? Is this a ‘gut feeling’ because one does not understand LLMs or is this factually based?
What is my estimate for AI being an existential risk in the next couple of decades? Depends on if we find something that actually resembles AGI which is impossible to predict. Based solely on current technology + scaling I would personally put the chance at essentially 0%.
Anyone who was working with transformers could have seen ChatGPT on the horizon, it wasn’t surprising at all that scaling an autoregressive model can result in something seemingly intelligent.
Where is 1 in 10 coming from? Is this a ‘gut feeling’ because one does not understand LLMs or is this factually based?
What is my estimate for AI being an existential risk in the next couple of decades? Depends on if we find something that actually resembles AGI which is impossible to predict. Based solely on current technology + scaling I would personally put the chance at essentially 0%.