That argument is still invalid because in scenario 2 we would not be having this discussion. No conclusions can be drawn from such past discourse about the likelihood of definite and complete extinction.
Not that, I hope, anyone expected a strong argument to be had there. It seems reasonably certain to me that humanity will go extinct one way or another eventually. That is also not a good argument in this situation.
Not that, I hope, anyone expected a strong argument to be had there. It seems reasonably certain to me that humanity will go extinct one way or another eventually. That is also not a good argument in this situation.