Comment by Tumblewood

This line of reasoning refutes pie-in-the-sky doomsday narratives that are extremely unlikely, but the case for AI extinction risk justifies a relatively high likelihood of extinction. Maybe a 0.0000000001% chance is worth ignoring but that's not what we're dealing with. See this survey for the probabilities cutting-edge AI researchers actually put on existential risk: https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/#...