> There is a chance that AMD, Intel, maybe Google etc. catch up with Nvidia in a year or two and data center GPUs become a commodity (clearly the entry bar should be lower than what it was for x86 CPUs back in) and what happens then?
Realistically, there is next to zero chance Intel (especially given the Arc catastrophe and foundry capabilities) or AMD (laundry list of reasons) catchup within 2 years.
Safe bet Google's TPUv5 will be competitive with the H100, as the v4 was with the A100, but their offering clearly hasn't impacted market share thus far and there is no indication Google intends to make their chips available outside of GCP.
With that said I also agree the current valuation seems too high, but I highly doubt there is a serious near-term competitor. I think it is more likely that current growth projections are too aggressive and demand will subside before they grow into their valuation, especially as the space evolves with open source foundation models and techniques come out (like LoRA/PEFT) that substantially reduce demand for the latest chips.
Realistically, there is next to zero chance Intel (especially given the Arc catastrophe and foundry capabilities) or AMD (laundry list of reasons) catchup within 2 years.
Safe bet Google's TPUv5 will be competitive with the H100, as the v4 was with the A100, but their offering clearly hasn't impacted market share thus far and there is no indication Google intends to make their chips available outside of GCP.
With that said I also agree the current valuation seems too high, but I highly doubt there is a serious near-term competitor. I think it is more likely that current growth projections are too aggressive and demand will subside before they grow into their valuation, especially as the space evolves with open source foundation models and techniques come out (like LoRA/PEFT) that substantially reduce demand for the latest chips.