Annoyed at all these N=1 articles from prominent thinkers about this stuff.
Especially from scientists - can these sorts of folks please more carefully quantify, how often it’s “wrong” and then from that decide whether or not to “calm down”.
Right now I suspect we hear from the outliers on both ends of the spectrum here. People who either see AGI happening tomorrow and the more dismissive crowd. But aside from what we’ve seen about testing like the Bar exam, not a lot of boring statistical study (that makes headlines at least)
Especially from scientists - can these sorts of folks please more carefully quantify, how often it’s “wrong” and then from that decide whether or not to “calm down”.
Right now I suspect we hear from the outliers on both ends of the spectrum here. People who either see AGI happening tomorrow and the more dismissive crowd. But aside from what we’ve seen about testing like the Bar exam, not a lot of boring statistical study (that makes headlines at least)