It's not "becoming" a major risk. It
already is a major risk:
* As long-term office leases expire, more tenants are giving notice of non-renewal, because they don't need as much space anymore.
* Many office buildings cannot fulfill their monthly debt service obligations if tenant collections drop below ~80% leased, give or take, at the old $/sqft.
* Many regional banks are loaded up with loans to office buildings likely to default in the near term.
* Downtown restaurants, pharmacies, shops, and other retail operations have lost a lot of foot traffic. Many are on the verge of shutting down.
* City governments depend significantly on downtown economic activity for tax collections. Local governments are likely to see a big hole in their finances.
All of this has been on economists' radar for well over a year:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4124698
* As long-term office leases expire, more tenants are giving notice of non-renewal, because they don't need as much space anymore.
* Many office buildings cannot fulfill their monthly debt service obligations if tenant collections drop below ~80% leased, give or take, at the old $/sqft.
* Many regional banks are loaded up with loans to office buildings likely to default in the near term.
* Downtown restaurants, pharmacies, shops, and other retail operations have lost a lot of foot traffic. Many are on the verge of shutting down.
* City governments depend significantly on downtown economic activity for tax collections. Local governments are likely to see a big hole in their finances.
All of this has been on economists' radar for well over a year:
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4124698