On the other hand, it might seem most likely that aliens
should be here, given:
- the vastness of space
- the abundance of habitable worlds
- the age of the universe
- the speed with which tools like von Neumann probes could proliferate the galaxy
- the likelihood that somebody somewhere over millions of years would create a von Neumann probe (computer viruses didn't take long to make)
- the observation that we are here so why is no one else?
If we look around and see that we are alone, are we to assume no one else is there, or is it more likely they are and are hiding? There are good reasons to assume the group that comes to survive longest in the galaxy is also the one that is good at hiding. I think all these considerations more or less answer your first 5 points.
For some of the remaining points, maybe there are very few real alien sightings in the UFO reports but they are very few. The vast majority are hoaxes / confused. Government is not involved but maybe covering up the fact that they have detected some things they can't explain.
- the vastness of space
- the abundance of habitable worlds
- the age of the universe
- the speed with which tools like von Neumann probes could proliferate the galaxy
- the likelihood that somebody somewhere over millions of years would create a von Neumann probe (computer viruses didn't take long to make)
- the observation that we are here so why is no one else?
If we look around and see that we are alone, are we to assume no one else is there, or is it more likely they are and are hiding? There are good reasons to assume the group that comes to survive longest in the galaxy is also the one that is good at hiding. I think all these considerations more or less answer your first 5 points.
For some of the remaining points, maybe there are very few real alien sightings in the UFO reports but they are very few. The vast majority are hoaxes / confused. Government is not involved but maybe covering up the fact that they have detected some things they can't explain.