The working theory from people on Twitter who generally "know their stuff" is that the FTS blew holes in the tanks, but where normally this would result if the tanks immediately structurally failing they didn't. This was probably a combination of the stainless steel contraction, pressurised tanks, and under specified FTS. It took a good 40 seconds from FTS to structural failure.
There have also been questions as to why it appears the FTS was only point charges rather than a cord down the side of the tanks.
There is a good stabilised video of this portion of the flight here (https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/165250639080235827...), you can see the plumes of propellant from the sides of the tanks where the FTS has made holes.
Elon also just did a Twitter Spaces where he answers a load of questions, summary here: https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/16524519714109358...
Key takeaways:
> From a "pad standpoint, we are probably ready to launch in 6 to 8 weeks.'
> "The longest item on that is probably requalification of the flight termination system ... it took way too long to rupture the tanks."
> Probably an 80% probability of reaching orbit with Starship this year, and "I think close to 100% change of reaching orbit within 12 months."
> "We're going to putting down a lot of steel" under the launch tower before the next Starship flight.
> The vehicle's structural margins appear to be better than we expected
> At T+27 seconds, SpaceX lost communications due to "some kind of energy event." And "some kind of explosion happened to knock out the heat shields of engines 17, 18, 19, or 20."
> Rocket kept going through T+62 seconds" with the engines continuing to run. Lost thrust vector control at T+85 seconds
There have also been questions as to why it appears the FTS was only point charges rather than a cord down the side of the tanks.
There is a good stabilised video of this portion of the flight here (https://twitter.com/Erdayastronaut/status/165250639080235827...), you can see the plumes of propellant from the sides of the tanks where the FTS has made holes.
Elon also just did a Twitter Spaces where he answers a load of questions, summary here: https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/16524519714109358...
Key takeaways:
> From a "pad standpoint, we are probably ready to launch in 6 to 8 weeks.'
> "The longest item on that is probably requalification of the flight termination system ... it took way too long to rupture the tanks."
> Probably an 80% probability of reaching orbit with Starship this year, and "I think close to 100% change of reaching orbit within 12 months."
> "We're going to putting down a lot of steel" under the launch tower before the next Starship flight.
> The vehicle's structural margins appear to be better than we expected
> At T+27 seconds, SpaceX lost communications due to "some kind of energy event." And "some kind of explosion happened to knock out the heat shields of engines 17, 18, 19, or 20."
> Rocket kept going through T+62 seconds" with the engines continuing to run. Lost thrust vector control at T+85 seconds