I think it's more useful for second guessing your past choices.
You're absolutely right that it's worth weighing the chances looking forwards because it can guide your future choices.
But when looking back and thinking "if only I'd done this or that differently, everything would have gone well," that's torturing yourself with a imaginary timeline that never happened and for which there is a non-zero chance could have been worse.
You're absolutely right that it's worth weighing the chances looking forwards because it can guide your future choices.
But when looking back and thinking "if only I'd done this or that differently, everything would have gone well," that's torturing yourself with a imaginary timeline that never happened and for which there is a non-zero chance could have been worse.