Covid should have slowed down economies, but instead governments pumped the gas. This was the widely recognized disconnect between Wall St and Main St. Now the chickens are coming home to roost, and not in any particularly predictable way because everything has been thoroughly distorted. There should have been a slew of predictable debt defaults in 2020, but after many trillions in helicopter money who knows anymore?
Also the war itself puts a strong damper on international commerce. We had basically been operating in a mostly peaceful world where war was limited to US/China/Russia busting up isolated third world countries. But Russia launching a full state-on-state genocide is a severe departure from that time of relative peace in most of the world.
Now we get to test the hypothesis that nations who trade with one another are disincentivized from going to war, and are about to find out how big that incentive really is.
Also the war itself puts a strong damper on international commerce. We had basically been operating in a mostly peaceful world where war was limited to US/China/Russia busting up isolated third world countries. But Russia launching a full state-on-state genocide is a severe departure from that time of relative peace in most of the world.
Now we get to test the hypothesis that nations who trade with one another are disincentivized from going to war, and are about to find out how big that incentive really is.