Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up.
> Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general.
Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.
> 2019's inflation was below target.
Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.
Muddied the definition of a recession when the question came up.
> Also if you predict a recession every year you'll eventually get one right, but that doesn't make you right about recession predictions in general.
Yep. That's pretty much the game of predictions.
> 2019's inflation was below target.
Which target? The one the Fed determines? Consumer inflation at the moment (~7%) is rivalling rates witnessed back in the 80s. Add the new money the Fed has printed over time (since 2008) and now expected to continue (covid stimulus, bailouts for banks etc.), anyone can see where the trend for inflation is going. No predictions are even needed for that.