> Experts in the fields have been predicting that since the invention of computers, so we're closing in on 100 years of "trust me bro it's just around the corner"
Even that's true, simple extrapolations on raw computing power make the 15 - 25 year estimate realistic. That was definitely not the case 100 years ago.
> AGI won't build a house
Are you sure? Computers are already a indispensable tool when it comes to planing something like a building. Without computers the planing would be much more labor intensive and much less safe.
And when it comes to the physical building: The branch of robotics for application on construction sides is more or less exploding the last few years. It won't take long and a lot of work on a building site can be almost fully automated.
> AGI won't pick up your trash
Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous AI powered robots" that start to show up in more and more average households. And even "simple" vacuum cleaner robots need quite some AI…
So AI way below AGI is already picking up the trash; and that's just the beginning.
> AGI won't mine your lithium, &c.
It won't? I'm not sure.
AI helps already to find new mining sites.
Also like with construction sites mining is something that gets automated more and more with every year passing.
All the dangerous and labor intensive but profitable tasks get automated first. That's a clear trend throughout history.
I myself am very skeptical on the current AI hype. Though I'm very sure our AI Overlords are coming, and this will happen sooner as some people would like. In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. But maybe so much computing power isn't even required to reach AGI—if the used software is constructed in a smart way.
Even that's true, simple extrapolations on raw computing power make the 15 - 25 year estimate realistic. That was definitely not the case 100 years ago.
> AGI won't build a house
Are you sure? Computers are already a indispensable tool when it comes to planing something like a building. Without computers the planing would be much more labor intensive and much less safe.
And when it comes to the physical building: The branch of robotics for application on construction sides is more or less exploding the last few years. It won't take long and a lot of work on a building site can be almost fully automated.
> AGI won't pick up your trash
Well, actually cleaning robots are the first "serous AI powered robots" that start to show up in more and more average households. And even "simple" vacuum cleaner robots need quite some AI…
So AI way below AGI is already picking up the trash; and that's just the beginning.
> AGI won't mine your lithium, &c.
It won't? I'm not sure.
AI helps already to find new mining sites.
Also like with construction sites mining is something that gets automated more and more with every year passing.
All the dangerous and labor intensive but profitable tasks get automated first. That's a clear trend throughout history.
I myself am very skeptical on the current AI hype. Though I'm very sure our AI Overlords are coming, and this will happen sooner as some people would like. In 25 years we will have enough processing power to simulate human brains just by brute force. That's more or less a given. But maybe so much computing power isn't even required to reach AGI—if the used software is constructed in a smart way.