This is the most cynical take, but also sadly the most true to history and therefore probably the future. Sure, the future might have every one of us with the ability to boot up with a command a self-assembling automated factory that previously took a supply chain of thousands of workers to run, but due to the suddenly enormous cost of land and raw materials relative to our make-work wages, nobody can afford to build it.
I am somewhat serious, but also being a little factitious here. There's a breaking point of widespread democratized (runnable by like 1-5 people, or a small community) technology where these companies don't have the same ability to absorb all these gains. If/when the basics for living are largely automated and able to be bootstrapped for very cheap / very little labor by AI-assisted tools, then the only way people are going to settle for jobs that give less than what these provide is by top-down dictatorial artificial scarcity and rent-seeking, blatantly destroying this production ability. I think there's definitely a cynical reality where that happens - and definitely regions of the world where it will - but everywhere..? Eh...
My money for the cynical take is much more along the lines of "massive social upheaval kicks off a world war with terrifying consequences" or "AI eradicates humanity". Less than that and honestly - we're gonna be golden in the long run, and it's gonna be an awkward but neat short/medium run.
I am somewhat serious, but also being a little factitious here. There's a breaking point of widespread democratized (runnable by like 1-5 people, or a small community) technology where these companies don't have the same ability to absorb all these gains. If/when the basics for living are largely automated and able to be bootstrapped for very cheap / very little labor by AI-assisted tools, then the only way people are going to settle for jobs that give less than what these provide is by top-down dictatorial artificial scarcity and rent-seeking, blatantly destroying this production ability. I think there's definitely a cynical reality where that happens - and definitely regions of the world where it will - but everywhere..? Eh...
My money for the cynical take is much more along the lines of "massive social upheaval kicks off a world war with terrifying consequences" or "AI eradicates humanity". Less than that and honestly - we're gonna be golden in the long run, and it's gonna be an awkward but neat short/medium run.