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Comment by bsder

You are precisely demonstrating the original post, no?

You had 2 of 9 businesses succeed. You are demonstrating roughly 1:5 odds of rolling a successful business.

With 1:5 odds if we reroll you doing 10 businesses over and over, 10% of you never succeed. About 1/3 of you win once, 1/3 of you win twice, and 20% of you win 3 times.

The versions of you that won 3 times are not any different than the versions of you who won never. Any advice you give is neither more accurate because a version of you won 3 times nor less accurate because a version of you won never.

parent bsder 3 years ago

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