It seems like this follow up paper clarifies the data's vision a lot more. Notable changes from the previous version discussed in a sister thread here:
- There is no more emphasis on price-only-inflation-adjusted returns. Good riddance: getting rid of dividends makes no sense and is borderline intellectually dishonest just to make the point.
- He no longer argues stocks don't work for the long run, just that bonds were as good in the past. This is a lower bar to meet as bonds in the past, especially corporate bonds as he's included, are actually quite risky!
- Finally there is some argument to be made that bonds are better investments when monitoring technology is poor -- since insiders can steal equityholders' wealth. But the 20th century invented good accounting, auditing, etc to reduce that and drive up equity returns.
- There is no more emphasis on price-only-inflation-adjusted returns. Good riddance: getting rid of dividends makes no sense and is borderline intellectually dishonest just to make the point.
- He no longer argues stocks don't work for the long run, just that bonds were as good in the past. This is a lower bar to meet as bonds in the past, especially corporate bonds as he's included, are actually quite risky!
- Finally there is some argument to be made that bonds are better investments when monitoring technology is poor -- since insiders can steal equityholders' wealth. But the 20th century invented good accounting, auditing, etc to reduce that and drive up equity returns.