As far as I can tell, layoffs seem concentrated among high-earning folks - I can definitely see how anyone browsing HN would think we're headed straight for a recession. But it seems like overall, and especially in lower-wage jobs, employment is still humming along and people are very much not getting laid off.
That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have serious financial problems like homes getting foreclosed (not to say it's not possible but they're much more likely to have a cushion to keep making payments). If they pull back on their discretionary spending plus stop doing things like driving up housing/car/stock prices by putting money into those things, that feels like it could be the basis for inflation slowing down without a huge uptick in unemployment and everything that comes with it.
That actually really gives me hope for a soft landing - those high-wage folks are much less likely to have serious financial problems like homes getting foreclosed (not to say it's not possible but they're much more likely to have a cushion to keep making payments). If they pull back on their discretionary spending plus stop doing things like driving up housing/car/stock prices by putting money into those things, that feels like it could be the basis for inflation slowing down without a huge uptick in unemployment and everything that comes with it.