I’d be absolutely shocked if more than 25% can be recovered. They spent multi-billions on venture investments that were not just high-risk due to their early stage nature but also inextricably linked to ftx by way of the cryptocurrency market as a whole and thus about as undiversified as humanly possible. There’s a few of their investments that have value and value could be recovered through sales but almost all of them are illiquid and have seen valuations collapse.
Also consider that a lot of the players involved are overseas and anonymous* which makes it much more difficult to clawback relative to people onshore (like in the case of madoff).
Also consider that a lot of the players involved are overseas and anonymous* which makes it much more difficult to clawback relative to people onshore (like in the case of madoff).