Excellent point, but how likely is a good outcome from this trade?
Assume that Twitter is 90% likely to tank at least badly enough that he has to cover the loans, and that $30B is entirely collateralized with TSLA stock (vs Twitter or some other assets).
That $30B is about 5.7% of the $527b market cap. Selling it all at once would certainly depress the stock. But would he have to do that, or just dump enough each month to make the payments? If that's over something like 5-10 years. it'd somewhat depress the curve, but enough to make a short work? If it's a 10-year timespan, it's more like 0.6% per year of 'extra' sales from the event, which seems getting down in the noise. Seems he's also make a variety of moves, e.g. a rollover loan, stock buybacks, etc. to minimize the impact on TSLA price...
Assume that Twitter is 90% likely to tank at least badly enough that he has to cover the loans, and that $30B is entirely collateralized with TSLA stock (vs Twitter or some other assets).
That $30B is about 5.7% of the $527b market cap. Selling it all at once would certainly depress the stock. But would he have to do that, or just dump enough each month to make the payments? If that's over something like 5-10 years. it'd somewhat depress the curve, but enough to make a short work? If it's a 10-year timespan, it's more like 0.6% per year of 'extra' sales from the event, which seems getting down in the noise. Seems he's also make a variety of moves, e.g. a rollover loan, stock buybacks, etc. to minimize the impact on TSLA price...
What am I missing here?