The odds of this group of people, on this day, finding this piece of the shuttle, are of course astronomically small.
The odds of some group out of millions of people, on some day out of ten thousand since the incident, finding some piece of debris out of thousands, are considerably higher.
This is the multiple-endpoints fallacy. You only notice the events that happened after the fact, you never notice everything that doesn't happen.
The odds of some group out of millions of people, on some day out of ten thousand since the incident, finding some piece of debris out of thousands, are considerably higher.
This is the multiple-endpoints fallacy. You only notice the events that happened after the fact, you never notice everything that doesn't happen.