I think this is the year this finally comes to pass. The US demand for devs has grown so much faster than our own ability to supply that demand, even with bootcamps and exploding CS dept sizes, that this hasn't been an issue. But if that demand is met somehow, things will change. 10 years ago Asia tried to supply that demand but for a variety of reasons it didn't really work. 5 years ago it was eastern Europe and it worked a lot better, but still companies that wanted the best team environment possible wanted people in the US and since many had the money to pay for it, demand remained above supply.
Now South America is taking their turn and I think they can actually finally pull off being an outsource or remote-office option that has very few downsides and the enormous upside of being 1/5th the cost. Combine that with everyone going remote, removing the last of the two big differentiator between US and offshore employees (timezone and being on site), and I think in the midsts of these layoffs we're going to see a shift of a lot of that work to SA.
Unless demand continues to explode, outstripping even the supply of SA, I think we should all expect lower wages and fewer jobs in the coming years.
Now South America is taking their turn and I think they can actually finally pull off being an outsource or remote-office option that has very few downsides and the enormous upside of being 1/5th the cost. Combine that with everyone going remote, removing the last of the two big differentiator between US and offshore employees (timezone and being on site), and I think in the midsts of these layoffs we're going to see a shift of a lot of that work to SA.
Unless demand continues to explode, outstripping even the supply of SA, I think we should all expect lower wages and fewer jobs in the coming years.