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Comment by samvher

This seems to be a thing with weather models more generally. Somewhat relatedly, I've spent quite a bit of time evaluating weather models for use in India and Africa, and while predictions are easy to find, validation results for the predictions are very hard to find. And when you do find them, the results are pretty poor, with many models performing worse than if you would say "predict temperature on date X to be the average observed temperature on the same date in the past 10 years". But people still sell (and buy) these predictions!

Weather predictions seem to be accepted quite uncritically. Perhaps people have a lot of confidence in the smart people that built these predictions (a bit like how AI predictions can sometimes be accepted uncritically).

parent samvher 4 years ago

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