China overtaking the US seems a lot more likely based on sheer numbers. China’s population is over 4x larger than that of the US. So China “just” needs to reach a GDP per capita of 25% to have a larger economy than the US. This metric has been growing rapidly in the past decade or two and from a rough search, seems to currently stand around 17-18% of the US’s figure.
Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power status, but it sure is a big one.
Compared to the US, China also has a far larger labor force, a greater ability to manufacture things, and greater government control over its population.
Access to natural resources is similar for many things, less for some (like oil and gas) but greater for others (like rare earth minerals).
Of course GDP isn’t the only factor in world power status, but it sure is a big one.
Compared to the US, China also has a far larger labor force, a greater ability to manufacture things, and greater government control over its population.
Access to natural resources is similar for many things, less for some (like oil and gas) but greater for others (like rare earth minerals).