I'm curious, with such giant swathes of forest being burnt off annually, and large contiguous chunks being burnt up, leaving only smaller contiguous areas;
1) given the average size of a megafire, how many more megafires can happen (assuming regrowth to current fuel levels takes 50 years)
2) what is the largest megafire that could still happen, given the forested area unburnt for at least 50 years
The chronicle has a map somewhere that lists all the wildfires that have happened in the last 30-40 years, at a casual glance it is looking like any forest areas that haven't burnt yet, are getting increasingly smaller. According to the USDA california has about 101 million acres of forest[1], and the august complex (2020) alone burnt 1 million acres, almost 1%, dixie fire was also almost 1%. The next 18 largest fires burnt another 5% (4.7%) [2]. Since 2001 We've burnt up 22% of all the forests in california [3]
7% in ~12 years seems like a lot, but it takes a long time to grow that much fuel, also the space in between those burnt spaces is going to be increasingly smaller and smaller, or at least so it would seem.
[1] https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.h...
[2] https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/4jandlhh/top20_acres.pdf
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires#A...
1) given the average size of a megafire, how many more megafires can happen (assuming regrowth to current fuel levels takes 50 years)
2) what is the largest megafire that could still happen, given the forested area unburnt for at least 50 years
The chronicle has a map somewhere that lists all the wildfires that have happened in the last 30-40 years, at a casual glance it is looking like any forest areas that haven't burnt yet, are getting increasingly smaller. According to the USDA california has about 101 million acres of forest[1], and the august complex (2020) alone burnt 1 million acres, almost 1%, dixie fire was also almost 1%. The next 18 largest fires burnt another 5% (4.7%) [2]. Since 2001 We've burnt up 22% of all the forests in california [3]
7% in ~12 years seems like a lot, but it takes a long time to grow that much fuel, also the space in between those burnt spaces is going to be increasingly smaller and smaller, or at least so it would seem.
[1] https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fsm8_037652.h...
[2] https://www.fire.ca.gov/media/4jandlhh/top20_acres.pdf
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_California_wildfires#A...