I'm approaching 50. Just a scant decade away from being old enough to tap my retirement accounts and have the OPTION to retire. These next couple of years look like they might not be fun, but overall it looks like I'm actually going to make it.
For most of my career, I've been told (and I believed) that I would probably get forced out of a hands-on individual contributor role as I aged. During the late-2000's, I even had an early midlife crisis and earned a law degree, expecting that I would need to make a career change into IP or something. That hasn't been the case.
What I think people missed is the compounding effect. The supply and demand for computer programmers seems to double every decade (maybe the interval is even shorter). With each doubling, the older cohorts become a smaller and smaller share of the whole. People look around and think, "There aren't many older programmers here", and base predictions off that observation. However, the more accurate observation would be, "There have been A LOT of younger programmers added here!". I don't believe that it's actually a zero-sum game, though.
I don't know if this human resources cousin to Moore's Law will continue indefinitely, but it's certainly held up through my career. Even when it inevitably slows down, I think that just means you'll see the age cohorts balance out more over time.
For most of my career, I've been told (and I believed) that I would probably get forced out of a hands-on individual contributor role as I aged. During the late-2000's, I even had an early midlife crisis and earned a law degree, expecting that I would need to make a career change into IP or something. That hasn't been the case.
What I think people missed is the compounding effect. The supply and demand for computer programmers seems to double every decade (maybe the interval is even shorter). With each doubling, the older cohorts become a smaller and smaller share of the whole. People look around and think, "There aren't many older programmers here", and base predictions off that observation. However, the more accurate observation would be, "There have been A LOT of younger programmers added here!". I don't believe that it's actually a zero-sum game, though.
I don't know if this human resources cousin to Moore's Law will continue indefinitely, but it's certainly held up through my career. Even when it inevitably slows down, I think that just means you'll see the age cohorts balance out more over time.