It's actually worse than that. If we take a population with only median and maximum talents, the probabilities for each event are: halving: p=0.5, doubling
because median-or-above talent: p=0.5*0.6. Meaning that in 80% of the events for a given actor the talent is not considered at all.
So the result that luck plays a larger part isn't an emergent property of the model, it was explicitly baked into the model from the start.
It wouldn't be unfair to call this paper fraudulent.
It's actually worse than that. If we take a population with only median and maximum talents, the probabilities for each event are: halving: p=0.5, doubling because median-or-above talent: p=0.5*0.6. Meaning that in 80% of the events for a given actor the talent is not considered at all.
So the result that luck plays a larger part isn't an emergent property of the model, it was explicitly baked into the model from the start.
It wouldn't be unfair to call this paper fraudulent.
DOI: 10.1142/S0219525918500145