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Comment by incremental

For a randomly selected family with two children, there are four possible boy/girl combinations: B B, B G, G B, G G

In the first case we are told that the older child is a boy. This leaves only two cases: B B, B G Therefore, there is a 50% chance the second child is a boy.

In the second case, we are told only that [at least] one child is a boy. This leaves three possibilities: B B, B G, G B Therefore, the probability that both children are boys is 1/3.

Enumerating possible states of the world like this is the fundamental insight you need to have to be able to understand these types of problems - but it does take a while to get used to!

parent incremental 15 years ago

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