Seems pretty clear that RCV had (another) Condorcet failure here- Begich is the clear Condorcet winner. This is the same issue that famously happened in the 2009 Burlington mayor's election, leading to an angry voter recall of RCV.
Pairwise Preferences
88222 Begich > Peltola
79574 Peltola > Begich
Begich wins with 52.5% against Peltola
101530 Begich > Palin
63681 Palin > Begich
Begich wins with 61.4% against Palin
91418 Peltola > Palin
86271 Palin > Peltola
Peltola wins with 51.4% against Palin
Edit to include all of the failures here. I am copying this from a comment on r/endfptp, analysis is not mine (link below):
Condorcet Failure:
Begich beats Peltola by 52.5% and Palin by 61.4%.
Favorite Betrayal Failure:
If 2913 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola betrayed Palin by strategically ranking Begich 1st he would of won instead of Peltola.
Monotonicity Failure:
If Peltola were able to gain the support of 5825 Palin voters, she would of lost to Begich.
Participation Failure:
If 5825 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola had forgotten to vote, Begich would of won.
Consistency Failure:
If 5828 Palin>Begich voters, 2915 Begich voters, and 2914 Peltola>Begich voters were removed from the election, Begich would have won and if you counted just those removed votes, Begich also would of won
https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/x9oupk/2022_alaska...
Pairwise Preferences
88222 Begich > Peltola
79574 Peltola > Begich
Begich wins with 52.5% against Peltola
101530 Begich > Palin
63681 Palin > Begich
Begich wins with 61.4% against Palin
91418 Peltola > Palin
86271 Palin > Peltola
Peltola wins with 51.4% against Palin
Edit to include all of the failures here. I am copying this from a comment on r/endfptp, analysis is not mine (link below):
Condorcet Failure: Begich beats Peltola by 52.5% and Palin by 61.4%.
Favorite Betrayal Failure: If 2913 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola betrayed Palin by strategically ranking Begich 1st he would of won instead of Peltola.
Monotonicity Failure: If Peltola were able to gain the support of 5825 Palin voters, she would of lost to Begich.
Participation Failure: If 5825 Palin voters that preferred Begich to Peltola had forgotten to vote, Begich would of won.
Consistency Failure: If 5828 Palin>Begich voters, 2915 Begich voters, and 2914 Peltola>Begich voters were removed from the election, Begich would have won and if you counted just those removed votes, Begich also would of won
https://www.reddit.com/r/EndFPTP/comments/x9oupk/2022_alaska...