Comment by Josteniok

The article is from May 2019. Chenoweth has a paper published in April 2020 (see: https://carrcenter.hks.harvard.edu/files/cchr/files/CCDP_005...) where she hedges on the 3.5% rule. For example, one of her "key takeaways" at the top of the paper is:

New research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak. This suggests that there has been at least one exception to the 3.5% rule, and that the rule is a tendency, rather than a law.