Yes, this usage is basically "wahrscheinlich". Here it is a rhetorical device to soften the author's conclusion:
> The bottom line is that, with the announcement on July 28 of a two-quarter GDP decline, we can be highly confident that the U.S. economy entered a recession early in 2022.
This will usually be the case. When something is likely X it is probably X, not possibly X.
> The bottom line is that, with the announcement on July 28 of a two-quarter GDP decline, we can be highly confident that the U.S. economy entered a recession early in 2022.
This will usually be the case. When something is likely X it is probably X, not possibly X.