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Comment by joak

There is this idea that nuclear is not being deployed because people have a wrong perception of risks.

However, the main reason is the economy. The costs of solar, wind and batteries are dropping exponentially but the costs of nuclear are not improving. We can blame regulation and the hypothetically wrong public perception about safety, but the reality is that costs cannot go down easily because of the innovation dynamics:

1. It takes several years to build a nuclear reactor. Hence, innovations take a decade to reach the market. Learning curve has to be slow.

2. A nuclear reactor cannot be shipped, it has to be build on site. This makes manufacturing automation, economies of scale and competition hard. In other words: you cannot have factories in China, or elsewhere, shipping cheap nuclear reactors all over the planet.

A change in regulation might lower the costs, but it's not going to improve much the innovation dynamics.

In conclusion, all this talking is mostly irrelevant: nuclear reactors are simply not going to be built because they are not competitive. And things are getting worse by the day because the alternatives have a better innovation cycle.

parent joak 4 years ago

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