> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.
That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP.
It's worth noting that yield curve inversion predicted recession four months ago:
> The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-1...
It's also worth noting that 2y-10y yields have been deeply inverted (~20 basis points) for most of July and are in that state today.
Still one more thing to note: the earliest warning signal of them all appears to be an inversion of the eurodollar futures curve:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eurodollar-futures-...
It started inverting last year. The inversion steepened. It is now in a very deep inversion in the long end that is marching steadily to lower maturities.
That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP.
It's worth noting that yield curve inversion predicted recession four months ago:
> The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/31/2-year-treasury-yield-tops-1...
It's also worth noting that 2y-10y yields have been deeply inverted (~20 basis points) for most of July and are in that state today.
Still one more thing to note: the earliest warning signal of them all appears to be an inversion of the eurodollar futures curve:
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eurodollar-futures-...
It started inverting last year. The inversion steepened. It is now in a very deep inversion in the long end that is marching steadily to lower maturities.