(I'm a seed stage VC.)
In general, seed stage is less affected by the recent downturn than later stages. Which makes sense, since the time to exit for a seed stage company can be the better part of a decade, so today's macro climate has less impact.
A few tips and observations:
- from what I've seen, most seed funds are still investing, although on average at a 20-40% slower cadence than 6 months ago. On the other hand, some later stage investors are now more active at seed because that lets them keep investing while putting less capital at risk.
- assume valuations will be closer to what they were ~2 years ago. Earlier this year, the median seed valuation felt like ~$20m post, and we saw a number of $30m-$40m post money valuations. Right now we're seeing more valuations in the teens, and seed round sizes are more frequently $2m-3m instead of $4m-$6m.
- longer runways are favored. The fundraising climate over the next year is uncertain -- especially for Series A and beyond -- so the typical "raise for 18+ mo of runway" advice has turned into "raise for 24-30 mo of runway."
- cash efficiency and faster time to revenue are favored over growth in this climate.
- capital intensive businesses will be much harder to raise for.
- investor diligence is shifting away from FOMO and rushed decisions, and back toward normal diligence processes. Assume that investments decisions will take an extra 1-4 weeks for each investor.
It's not all bad news:
- anecdotally, it feels like hiring is a little easier.
- historically, recessions have been a great time to start big companies.
- there's still a LOT of capital waiting to be deployed into startups.
- "fundraises are looking like they did in 2020" is still pretty good, since 2020 was already a great year to be fundraising as a founder.
In general, seed stage is less affected by the recent downturn than later stages. Which makes sense, since the time to exit for a seed stage company can be the better part of a decade, so today's macro climate has less impact.
A few tips and observations:
- from what I've seen, most seed funds are still investing, although on average at a 20-40% slower cadence than 6 months ago. On the other hand, some later stage investors are now more active at seed because that lets them keep investing while putting less capital at risk.
- assume valuations will be closer to what they were ~2 years ago. Earlier this year, the median seed valuation felt like ~$20m post, and we saw a number of $30m-$40m post money valuations. Right now we're seeing more valuations in the teens, and seed round sizes are more frequently $2m-3m instead of $4m-$6m.
- longer runways are favored. The fundraising climate over the next year is uncertain -- especially for Series A and beyond -- so the typical "raise for 18+ mo of runway" advice has turned into "raise for 24-30 mo of runway."
- cash efficiency and faster time to revenue are favored over growth in this climate.
- capital intensive businesses will be much harder to raise for.
- investor diligence is shifting away from FOMO and rushed decisions, and back toward normal diligence processes. Assume that investments decisions will take an extra 1-4 weeks for each investor.
It's not all bad news:
- anecdotally, it feels like hiring is a little easier.
- historically, recessions have been a great time to start big companies.
- there's still a LOT of capital waiting to be deployed into startups.
- "fundraises are looking like they did in 2020" is still pretty good, since 2020 was already a great year to be fundraising as a founder.